Tuesday, November 28, 2006

A war? OH COME ON!!

I noticed a lot of people fearing and warning about civil war. Michel Aoun warned about a Christian-Christian potential war. And now EVERYONE’s talking about civil war. Personally, I don’t see any war coming.

Yes there were some “violence”, pictures burnt and stuff like that. But there were no human casualties or anything. No I am not saying that it’s nothing and everything’s fine. NO! Violence is unacceptable regardless of all excuses, it’s refused pure and simple, anger is justified, violence is not. However, a war, especially civil wars, needs very strict and surreal conditions:
  1. A central power that is deteriorated and divided to the point of being impotent facing the rising violence
    Now the opposition forces (8th of March coalition + FPM) are always talking about the illegitimacy and the impotence of this government, but the truth is that this government has proven to be very strong (yes strong, I mean it!) and it represents a lot of Lebanese, those who are not represented can work on entering.
    Above all, this government has proven its ability to control and stabilize this country, take the latest events, who separated the electrified crowds? The Lebanese armed forces. No one has noticed that, but the armed forces have done an excellent job preserving stability and security at a time when it is still readjusting to the changes and the new deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south.

  2. You need at least two opposed armed groups that are “preparing” for a confrontation:
    Now Hezbollah is bluntly armed, that why some call them an armed militia (and I tend to agree with them). But who is going to face them? Who’s willing to answer any of their provocation militarily? I am fully aware that most of the Lebanese people are armed and I have even read here and there about heavy armament. But let me give you a simple example, my uncles’ place is at the limit of Dahieh and let’s just say that my uncles’ are armed when necessary. For the time being, and in spite of all the turbulence, my uncles are not really arming yet. While in July War… they had everything prepared for a “Hezballah invasion”, yes now they simply feel safe.
    Another example, my college is an FPM lair, there were fights and physical damage at many occasions, and the elections are usually a very good excuse for violence. But still, since Pierre’s death, no violence took place, Pierre’s pictures are everywhere (inside the campus) and the LFs are organizing massive and frequent events and movements and the FPM is doing nothing to cause trouble.
    This is the situation every where, of course we are waiting anxiously, but let’s face it, people don’t want a war. Let’s give the Lebanese people the credit that they deserve.

  3. You need an international encouragement for war
    This is something that my uncle declared last Sunday, he just confirmed:
    Lebanese can’t and won’t start a war! They never did and they never will. It’s always about what the others want. And the international community doesn’t want a war, they support this government, except for Syria and Iran, and they don’t really matter anyway.
    I will add nothing to his words.

Now I could be totally wrong. But I do NOT believe there will any war. I am not scared and I believe that this is hopeless, it’s just too damn hard.

1 comment:

jokerman said...

with all due respect, but your points are not entirely correct.
1- this stalemate between anti syrian & pro syrians cannot last for long in a peaceful way, one or both will get tired & will try to take matters into their own hands, most probably pro syrians will start it.
2- Forget about the international community, they can force a few things but don't control much.
3- If things wrosen, it does not mean it will be a war like the previous one, circumstances have changed & people too but this situation where the country is basically divided, 2 teams are working against eachother. Hezbollah wants more power to veto any tribunals to protect syrians implicated in the hariry assassination & other journalists, they want to take over the country, they can easily resort to their weapons to swiftly turn things their way & corner everyone else, & of course others will retaliate & not sit quiet.
4- I dont know much about factions but i think michel aoun cares more about his own safety than the future of his supporters, alligning with hezbolah is a bad idea as it will definitely turn on him later, he must know that.
But i still cannot see HOW can supporters remain calm & civilised when no one is getting their way & i dont see that any compromises are possible. Hezbollah will want to have it their way & i fear they will obey orders from syria to up the ante, its getting more tense, dont you think?