I think the politicians are trying to check the public opinion to rearrange their political position. After the Tsunami (that’s the name that Aoun was given when the Tayyar showed so much effectiveness in the political elections in 2005) everybody was actually shocked! Well I don’t think even Aoun expected so much. This is why Aoun is desperately trying to make some early elections.
But now the tides have changed, Aoun has turned against almost everything he had taken as principles, but on the other hand he has gained a heavy Shiite support. Now usually the heaviest in the elections are the Sunna and the Shiia, the Christians are no longer as strong as before, and besides, the election divisions was made at a time where the Christians were excluded from the Lebanese politics, and their votes are often eclipsed by the Non-Christian votes.
So Aoun has lost on the Christian front and gained on the Shiia front. So it’s crucial to know how much change has occurred on each side, since the Sunna haven’t really changed.
But it’s also extremely important to know what the changes are on the Christian side because the Christians are still the major economic motor, they hold the capitals, they have a lot of well established immigrants all around the world, in addition to the Christian sympathy that they have, all these factors provide the Christians an international political and economic weight. And Christians leave very easily, so they can easily go live outside and take their knowledge and capitals.
In brief, even though the Shiia form alone 50% of the Lebanese population, the Christians still have tremendous importance in politics.
The reason I get to notice these changes right so easily is that I simply live in Jounieh and in this area there is no clear political face, the Tayyar is most popular (I think), but there are representatives of all the Lebanese Christians parties, and we also have many Muslims. And a certain population of non Lebanese. So it’s crucial for the politicians to know what the changes around here.