Monday, July 31, 2006

What is Hezbollah relying on?

Judging from all the damage you'd think that Hezbollah would be shaking or something. Well not really. Nasrallah's hiding somewhere and the rest of his men are no where to be seen. Hezbollah has admitted very few losses so far. But that's just a façade.

In fact the losses of Israel and Hezbollah can't really be compared, the nature of both parties' very different. While Israel is a nation, they have a regular army and they have a people to please, and certain standards to keep. Hezbollah on the other hand is a terrorist pseudo-organisation, there members are pseudo-professionals they know how to kill and most of all they know how to die, they have no tactics, they have no awareness of human standards, they don't consider themselves supposed to preserve the civilians because after all anyone that dies from there side will go to heaven and all the Israelis are monsters that don't deserve to live. And the most important detail is that the Hezbollah members are not even registered, so any Hezbollah militant that dies is considered a civilian victim.

Finally, this war is most of all a psychological war, Israel's warning the cities almost 2 hours before attacking; many times they are sending false alarms. This has partly contributed in the massive immigration toward safer areas. Israel's also giving a lot of attention to the civilian victims on the Israeli side, while undermining the military losses. Hezbollah on the other hand's still insisting that all the Lebanese losses are not important, that all can be rebuilt, the most important thing is the dignity or our people, whether the Lebanese people agrees with him or not is of no concern to him. At the same time Hezbollah has only lost 5 militants so far (the Lebanese army has suffered greater losses).

In fact Hezbollah seems to be pretty well, they still haven't lost Nasrallah and they are still colliding with Israeli troops deeply in the south, they don't seem to have lost any terrain. Which might indicate that the whole South is still under the Hezbollah dominance. But be careful, hezbollah is a master of lies, and most importantly Hezbollah is giving its last fight, this time it's all or nothing, if Hezbollah loses today they will disappear, they HAVE to win and anything less than winning is a total loss. And winning means to inflict a humiliating loss to Israel, nothing less. So retreating away from the blue line is out of the question, not to mention that they are restricted to remain there because of the Israeli suffocation tactic. So Hezbollah's probably (and I am here expressing my own interpretation, I have no information to back this) relying on the psychological factor of keeping the struggle the closest possible to the Israeli part. They need to give the illusion that they are still in command, because that is the only way to keep Israeli troops from invading the South and slaughtering the Hezbollah officials. I believe that Hezbollah only has troops close to the border, they have probably mobilised all there forces to the south, 10 km inside the Lebanese borders is probably unarmed and empty from any Hezbollah militants.

Another arm that Hezbollah's trying to use, civilians. Hezbollah has this fine art of lamenting the civilians that they are killing. In fact when a Hezbollah member needs to leave or go to another post or anything they travel with there families, camouflaged as Lebanese civilians and holding there children in there hands, so if Israel knows about there movement it hesitates to attack them, but don't think that Israel is that concerned about civilians, they have indeed attacked many mini-vans. Another pillar of the Two attackers one victim philosophy.

And Hezbollah's most desperate attempt is to include christians in there war. A tactic frequently used by hezbollah is to launch its missiles from christians towns, because that would result in an Israeli assault against that town. This is most of all effective because of war taboo, none can accuse the Hezbollah of being immoral, and none can ever justify any Israeli assault. So Hezbollah's always right. But we know what is going on, there were talks recently about Hezbollah trying to force a major Christian Hospital to put missiles in there underground parking zone, the Hospital administration certainly refused but many southern towns don't have that choice, they can easily be bombarded by Hezbollah in case they refuse since Hezbollah rules there as king. In another case, there were a political TV program on LBC again, they hosted a Hezbollah representative, a woman called giving her name and publicly questioned the Hezbollah's representative about the missiles launched from inside her town (a christian town) and even accusing Hezbollah of attacking the Lebanese towns themselves!

In that same town there were some talk about a UFO, Hezbollah was totally, absolutely, beyond any doubt certain that it was an Israeli plane that they succeeded in dropping. The israelis denied. And then people agreed that it was probably something that we are not certain about, but certainly not a plane. My dad went to work that day and according to what he had heard, it's a missile launcher belonging to Hezbollah, they were trying to launch one of there missiles or something, when the Israeli services detected them and they attacked them, they tried to "wrap" the debris to take them to a Lebanese military base and maybe re-use the remaining parts, so the Israeli army attacked them again. Some people are even justifying the Israeli attacks against the Lebanese bases.

And do you people remember the first Qana massacre?

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